The Z-Bracket: 2005 edition

It's the middle of March. Sixty-five teams have been inserted into a bracket to play for a national championship. That only means one thing - it's time for me to come up with my own bracket! In my world, the Z-Ratings reign supreme, and will be used to select and seed the teams, and to an extent, bracket them. Through four months and 4,675 games, the ratings look like this.

Selecting the field

Step 1: the automatic bids.

Team	Conference	Rank
Illinois	Big Ten	1
Duke	Atlantic Coast	4
Washington	Pacific-10	5
Oklahoma State	Big 12	10
Gonzaga	West Coast	11
Louisville	Conference USA	12
Syracuse	Big East	13
Florida	Southeastern	19
New Mexico	Mountain West	38
Texas - El Paso	Western Athletic	48
Creighton	Missouri Valley	51
George Washington	Atlantic 10	60
Old Dominion	Colonial Atlantic	63
Wisconsin - Milwaukee	Horizon	65
Utah State	Big West	78
Ohio University	Mid-American	85
Vermont	America East	87
Louisiana - Lafayette	Sun Belt	89
Winthrop	Big South	105
Pennsylvania	Ivy League	121
Bucknell	Patriot	127
Chattanooga	Southern	145
Central Florida	Atlantic Sun	148
Eastern Kentucky	Ohio Valley	150
Niagara	Metro Atlantic Athletic	156
Southeast Louisiana	Southland	159
Montana	Big Sky	176
Oakland	Mid-Continent	193
Fairleigh Dickinson	Northeast	208
Delaware State	Mid-Eastern Athletic	214
Alabama A&M	Southwestern Athletic	288

Step 2: the at-large bids.

Notre Dame and Indiana, two schools from the capital of basketball, were mentioned in the run-up to the tournament as bubble schools that played their way out. It's much harder to do that in this system, because every game is weighted the same. The Irish went 9-7 in the Big East, and the Hoosiers were 10-6 in the Big Ten; in both cases, just enough to get them into this field. Texas A&M benefits heavily from going undefeated in non-conference play; even a .500 mark in the Big XII and a first-round conference tournament loss didn't overcome that.

The three teams the committee chose over those in the previous paragraph are a fourth from Conference USA, a third from the Missouri Valley, and a second from the West Coast. If the motivation of the committee is to throw a couple of bones to mid-majors, then that isn't such a bad thing. But the Z-Bracket selects strictly by the numbers, and the numbers say the Big XII and Big East each get seven, and the Big Ten gets six. On the other hand, for the Atlantic Coast and Southeastern Conferences, it's a complete reversal from last year's Z-Bracket. Last year's SEC put an astounding nine teams in, and the ACC sent eight - each of these leagues got only five slots this year.

Seeding the teams

Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team
1	1	1	Illinois		5	17	17	Wisconsin		9	33	33	Mississippi State		13	78	49	Utah State
	2	2	North Carolina			18	18	Villanova			34	34	Southern Illinois			85	50	Ohio University
	3	3	Wake Forest			19	19	Florida			35	35	North Carolina State			87	51	Vermont
	4	4	Duke			20	20	Alabama			36	36	Stanford			89	52	Louisiana - Lafayette
2	5	5	Washington		6	21	21	Utah		10	37	37	Texas A&M		14	105	53	Winthrop
	6	6	Boston College			22	22	Cincinnati			38	38	New Mexico			121	54	Pennsylvania
	7	7	Kentucky			23	23	Pacific			39	39	Charlotte			127	55	Bucknell
	8	8	Arizona			24	24	Texas Tech			41	40	Notre Dame			145	56	Chattanooga
3	9	9	Kansas		7	25	25	Georgia Tech		11	42	41	Iowa State		15	148	57	Central Florida
	10	10	Oklahoma State			26	26	Pittsburgh			43	42	Nevada			150	58	Eastern Kentucky
	11	11	Gonzaga			27	27	Iowa			44	43	Indiana			156	59	Niagara
	12	12	Louisville			28	28	West Virginia			48	44	Texas - El Paso			159	60	Southeast Louisiana
4	13	13	Syracuse		8	29	29	UCLA		12	51	45	Creighton		16	176	61	Montana
	14	14	Oklahoma			30	30	Texas			60	46	George Washington			193	62	Oakland
	15	15	Connecticut			31	31	Minnesota			63	47	Old Dominion			208	63	Fairleigh Dickinson
	16	16	Michigan State			32	32	Louisiana State			65	48	Wisconsin - Milwaukee
															OR	214	64	Delaware State
																288	65	Alabama A&M

Key:
Rk = overall ranking by the Z-Ratings.
FR = Field ranking - the ranking of the team among the field of 65.
OR = opening round.

We've reached the point in the process where I talk about why a couple of teams are seeded where they are.

Boston College as a #2. Those who recall (as was stated above) that every game counts the same in the Z-Ratings won't be suprised by the Eagles being a No. 2. Neither the 4-4 end to the season nor their quarterfinal Big East tournament loss deflates the value of having won the Big East regular-season championship, or starting the season with twenty straight wins.
Iowa, UCLA, and Charlotte. These three teams differ by three from the seed given by the selection committee. In these cases, it's mainly a difference in schedule valuation - in other words, the Z-Ratings like the Big Ten and Pac-10, which favor Iowa and UCLA; on the other hand, they don't like Conference USA, which hurts Charlotte.
Oakland as a #16. Just as in 2003, a team with a losing record avoids the play-in game. And just as in 2003, that sub-.500 team played a significantly stronger schedule than the SWAC and MEAC champions (which, for the third straight year, would both be sent to Dayton in my bracket).

Establishing the bracket

Again, we adhere to the bracketing principles established by the committee. The key points to remember are:

• No intraconference matchups in the first three rounds, unless nine or more teams from a conference are selected (not this year - no conference has more than seven teams in).
• The first three teams from a conference go to different regionals.
• Teams seeded Nos. 1 thru 5 will not be put at a severe "home-court disadvantage" in the first round.
• A team cannot play in an arena where it has played more than three regular season games, excluding conference tournaments (i.e. any home court).
• A team cannot play at a site where its school is hosting. In the regional round, this constrains Syracuse, Texas, and New Mexico from playing in their home arenas; the same goes for Arizona in the first two rounds.
• Only one team from a conference can be among the top four or bottom four seeds in a region, unless a conference has five or more teams in those groupings of lines. (This constraint presents no problems to us this year.)
• If two teams from the same region are in contention for the same slot, the one with the higher rating remains in its region. (The guidelines say "S-Curve", but as noted above, we go with the simple ratings.)
• The winner of the opening-round game is sent to a Friday/Sunday pod for its first/second round games.
• If necessary, a team's seed can be adjusted up or down one spot to meet the principles. (And it will be necessary. Trust me.)

We also adhere to the bracketing procedure outlined in the championship handbook. This procedure is unchanged from 2004. Let's go to work.

Step 1: Place the No. 1 seeds, and pair the regional winners for the national semifinals.

Step 2: Place the No. 2 seeds.

Step 3: Place the No. 3 seeds.

Step 4: Place the No. 4 seeds.

Step 5: Check for conflicts and balance in the Nos. 1 through 4 seeds.

Step 6: Assign first and second round sites.

Worcester, MA: Boston College, Syracuse
Cleveland, OH: Louisville, Connecticut
Charlotte, NC: North Carolina, Wake Forest
Nashville, TN: Duke, Michigan State
Indianapolis, IN: Illinois, Kentucky
Oklahoma City, OK: Kansas, Oklahoma State
Tucson, AZ: Oklahoma, Gonzaga
Boise, ID: Washington, Arizona

Unlike last year, top overall seed Illinois gets the geographic advantage (by playing in Indianapolis, a Thursday/Saturday site) rather than the strict seeding advantage (of playing the opening round winner). This is a purely subjective call - after a 32-1 season, I think that the Illini absolutely deserve to not have to step on a plane to get to any of their games.

Let's put some conference champions in this bracket - we make the 13 through 16 lines next. These teams, and the rest of the teams in the bracket, are placed so that they are as close to home for the first and second round games as possible. Well, at least that's what I try to do.

Step 7: Place the No. 13 seeds.

Step 8: Place the No. 14 seeds.

Step 9: Place the No. 15 seeds.

Step 10: Place the No. 16 seeds.

Step 11: Check for conflicts and balance in the Nos. 13 through 16 seeds.

33 in, and 32 left.

Step 12: Place the No. 5 seeds.

Step 13: Place the No. 6 seeds.

Step 14: Place the No. 7 seeds.

Step 15: Place the No. 8 seeds.

Step 16: Check for conflicts and balance in the Nos. 5 through 8 seeds.

Step 17: Place the No. 9 seeds.

Step 18: Place the No. 10 seeds.

Step 19: Place the No. 11 seeds.

Step 20: Place the No. 12 seeds.

Step 21: Check for conflicts and balance in the Nos. 9 through 12 seeds.

Step 22: Re-check the entire bracket for conflicts.

Parting thoughts

The end of Appendix E of the men's basketball championship handbook (which deals with selection, seeding and placement) is worth quoting at length:

Each committee member independently evaluates a vast pool of information available during the process to develop individual preferences. It is these subjective opinions — developed after many hours of personal observations, discussion with coaches, directors of athletics and commissioners, and review and comparison of objective data — that dictate how each individual ultimately will vote on all issues related to the selection, seeding and bracketing process.

While the various elements of the RPI are important in the evaluation process, the tournament bracket each year is based on the subjectivity of each individual committee member to select the best at-large teams available and to create a nationally balanced championship.

To someone who has come to respect the selection process for the NCAA hockey tournament, this sums up everything wrong with the basketball makes its draw. The use of an objective, statistics-based system for selection ensures that the at-large teams are picked without regard to conference affiliation, regional bias, or reputation, to name a few factors. This might also cause teams to change their scheduling practices, to get tougher teams on their schedule to boost their rating. (Of course, if you don't win any of those games, it'll hurt you come selection time.) The point is that we know how every team got its spot in the Z-Bracket; nobody can really say for sure why Connecticut was given a No. 2, or why Louisville could only get a No. 4. At least my seed for Kansas matched the committee's seed this year.

That's all for this year - enjoy the tournament.