Z-Bracket 2019 - affix the stamp...

This year's Z-Bracket is late and it's going to be sparse. There won't be quite as much commentary, but I did get it done. It's an exercise in using the Z-Ratings (aka Bradley-Terry) as of Selection Sunday for NCAA Division I men's basketball, along with the NCAA's own procedures, to construct a tournament.

(Summary of previous brackets | Jump to this year's bracket)

Selecting the field

Step 1: the automatic bids.

Step 2: the at-large bids.

Seeding the teams

The first round

• The last and next-to-last at-large teams will play in the first round, as will the third-to-last and fourth-to-last at-large teams. The bottom four seeds will be paired 65 v. 66 and 67. v. 68.
• The seed that teams in the "First Four" will play for is determined by the field ranking of the higher-ranked team. That ranking will also determine precedence for the placement of the winners of the first-round games into the "main" 64-team bracket.
• Teams scheduled to play Wednesday, March 20 MUST be assigned to a Friday/Sunday pod for the first and second rounds. Teams playing on Tuesday, March 19 can be sent to either a Thursday/Saturday or Friday/Sunday pod.

Creating the seed list

Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team
1	1	1	Virginia		5	17	17	Wisconsin		9	33	33	Nevada		13	82	51	Old Dominion
	2	2	Duke			18	18	Wofford			34	34	Seton Hall			84	52	Liberty
	3	3	North Carolina			19	19	Kansas State			35	35	Ohio State			86	53	Vermont
	4	4	Tennessee			20	20	Virginia Tech			36	36	Florida			89	54	Yale
2	5	5	Kentucky		6	21	21	Maryland		10	37	37	UNC Greensboro		14	94	55	Saint Louis
	6	6	Michigan			22	22	Mississippi State			38	38	Texas Christian			95	56	Georgia State
	7	7	Houston			23	23	Villanova			39	39	Washington			97	57	Northeastern
	8	8	Michigan State			24	24	Marquette			40	40	Mississippi			123	58	Northern Kentucky
3	9	9	Gonzaga		7	25	25	Buffalo		11	41 42	41 42	Baylor Syracuse		15	129	59	Montana
	10	10	Florida State			26	26	Iowa State			43 44	43 44	Temple Nebraska			139	60	Colgate
	11	11	Louisiana State			27	27	Louisville			50	45	Utah State			149	61	Bradley
	12	12	Texas Tech			28	28	Iowa			56	46	New Mexico State			157	62	Abilene Christian
4	13	13	Kansas		8	29	29	Minnesota		12	60	47	Murray State		16	177	63	Gardner-Webb
	14	14	Auburn			30	30	Oklahoma			67	48	Oregon			200	64	North Dakota State
	15	15	Purdue			31	31	North Carolina State			69	49	UC Irvine			223 228	65 66	Prairie View A&M Fairleigh Dickinson
	16	16	Cincinnati			32	32	Central Florida			71	50	Saint Mary's			231 320	67 68	Iona North Carolina Central

Key:
Rk = overall ranking by the Z-Ratings.
FR = Field ranking - the ranking of the team among the field of 68.

Establishing the bracket

The actual bracket building is done the same way as the committee says it does it; their principles and procedures are publicly available, and have been relatively constant for as long as I've been doing this. The basics:

• Intraconference matchups are permissible at varying times, depending on how often the teams have played so far this season:
  • Three or more times - regional final (round of 8).
  • Twice - regional semifinal (round of 16).
  • Once or not at all - third round (round of 32).
• The first four teams from a conference go to different regionals, provided they are seeded on the first four lines.
• Teams seeded Nos. 1 thru 4 will not be put at a severe "home-court disadvantage" in the first round (the round of 64).
• A team cannot play in an arena where it has played more than three regular season games, excluding conference tournaments (i.e. any home court).
• A team cannot play at a site where its school is hosting, but can play at a site hosted by its conference. At the regional stage, that means that Louisville must be kept out of the South, and Ohio State can't be assigned to Columbus for the first weekend.
• If two teams from the same region are in contention for the same slot, the one with the higher rating remains in its region. (The guidelines say "true seed," formerly "S-Curve"; we instead use our ratings, as they produced our seeds.)
• If necessary, a team's seed can be adjusted up or down one spot to meet the principles; I've never been able to get through a bracket without doing this. Since 2013, the committee has been able a team two lines from its true seed in "extraordinary circumstances"; I don't expect to have to employ this provision.

We also adhere to the bracketing procedure outlined in the championship handbook (also at the link just above). As always, the three "additional considerations" listed after the procedure (relating to rematches of games from the regular season and last year's championship, and moving teams out of their natural region an inordinate number of times) and are not used in the construction of the Z-Bracket.Just makes for a quicker construction process. There is one tweak to the procedure, and it's right in the first step.

I'm not going to give my usual detail of building the bracket this time around. I will note the two instances that teams had to be swapped out of their seed lines stated above: Iowa and North Carolina State (nos. 7 and 8), and Ohio State and UNC Greensboro (nos. 9 and 10). Here's the final product.

EAST (Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.)				SOUTH (KFC Yum! Center, Louisville)
1	Virginia	Colonial Life Arena Columbia, SC		Colonial Life Arena Columbia, SC	Duke	1
16						16
8	Iowa				Central Florida	8
9	Seton Hall				Florida	9
5	Wofford	SAP Center San Jose, CA		SAP Center San Jose, CA	Kansas State	5
12	Saint Mary's				UC Irvine	12
4	Kansas				Purdue	4
13	Yale				Old Dominion	13
3	Louisiana State	BOK Center Tulsa, OK		Vivint Smart Home Arena Salt Lake City, UT	Texas Tech	3
14	Northeastern				Northern Kentucky	14
6	Maryland				Villanova	6
11						11
7	Buffalo	Wells Fargo Arena Des Moines, IA		VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena Jacksonville, FL	North Carolina State	7
10	Texas Christian				Ohio State	10
2	Michigan				Kentucky	2
15	Colgate				Abilene Christian	15
			FINAL FOUR (U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis) East v. West South v. Midwest
WEST (Honda Center, Anaheim)				MIDWEST (Sprint Center, Kansas City)
1	Tennessee	Nationwide Arena Columbus, OH		Nationwide Arena Columbus, OH	North Carolina	1
16	North Dakota State				Gardner-Webb	16
8	Minnesota				Oklahoma	8
9	Nevada				UNC Greensboro	9
5	Virginia Tech	XL Center Hartford, CT		XL Center Hartford, CT	Wisconsin	5
12	Murray State				Oregon	12
4	Cincinnati				Auburn	4
13	Vermont				Liberty	13
3	Florida State	VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena Jacksonville, FL		Vivint Smart Home Arena Salt Lake City, UT	Gonzaga	3
14	Georgia State				Saint Louis	14
6	Mississippi State				Marquette	6
11	Utah State				New Mexico State	11
7	Iowa State	Wells Fargo Arena Des Moines, IA		BOK Center Tulsa, OK	Louisville	7
10	Washington				Mississippi	10
2	Michigan State				Houston	2
15	Montana				Bradley	15
FIRST FOUR (UD Arena, Dayton) - Tuesday				FIRST FOUR (UD Arena, Dayton) - Wednesday
Baylor		(to East #11)		(to South #16)	Prairie View A&M
Syracuse					Fairleigh Dickinson
Temple		(to South #11)		(to East #16)	Iona
Nebraska					North Carolina Central

Bracket simulation

This will follow soon. Right now I just wanted to get the bracket up.

Acknowledgements

This may not be as extensive a Z-Bracket as usual, but I do intend to keep it going to 20... or at least to 18.

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